Thursday, September 5, 2024

How Pakistan would have acquired an AWACS two decades before the Indian Air Force

 


It was the period of the 1980s when the United States of America and Pakistan had joined hands to resist the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, by training local militia forces, called the “Mujaheddin”. Pakistani military officials regularly provided logistical support, training, and intelligence to the mujaheddin, and also took part directly in several covert operations to disrupt hostile supply lines and other strategic assets. Along with financial aid provided by Ronald Reagan’s administration in exchange for strengthening the anti-Soviet forces, Islamabad was also promised to be supplied with US-made armament to deal with Kremlin’s aggression against Pakistan. This includes both land and air wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces, which would then expecting sophisticated equipment produced by the Western bloc during the Cold War.

Fighting Falcon Soars while Tigershark falls short

Firstly, the General Dynamics F-16 deal went through in the early 80s. However, the aircraft was expensive and could not be acquired in large numbers, which was sought as per Air Staff Requirements (ASR) laid out by by Pakistan Air Force. The US, looking at an opportunity, pitched the Northrop F-20 “Tigershark”. Tigershark was a low-cost but capable derivative of F-5 fighter aircraft and was specially made for low-budget air forces. The plan was to supplement this platform in place of F-16 due to the fact that “sensitive US technology” must not be shared with non-NATO countries. However, the aircraft did owns certain advantages over the early F-16 models. 

Between 1982 and 1984, the Chief of Air Staff (CAS) of Pakistan Air Force, Air Chief Marshal Anwar Shamim deputed Group Captain Abbas Mirza (who later retired as Air Vice Marshal) to evaluate the F-20 in the USA. He was involved in a series of sorties on the Tigershark but ended up preferring the F-16s after his return to Pakistan. The main reasons cited were that the F-20 weapon control systems were not ready at the time, which created doubts on its combat capabilities, although the performance in terms of agility, and estimated life-cycle costs were fitting for PAF requirements.  Pakistan was useful for Washington to continue its anti-Soviet campaign in Afghanistan, and hence, it had to agree to supply the F-16 “Fighting Falcon” for the PAF. Despite Northrop's extensive marketing efforts, the F-20 Tigershark never found a buyer among the world's air forces, ultimately leaving the aircraft as an unsold promise.

Pakistan Air Force F-16A (close) and F-16B (far) Block 15. Source: f-16.net

The F-16 turned out successful for Pakistan for air defence missions close to the Pak-Afghan border. The aircraft were quick to launch and intercept Soviet aircraft which were suspected of breaching the Pakistani airspace during their operational sorties. Some missions did see PAF violating the Afghan airspace itself, though returning unharmed as it outguns the Soviet warplanes, like the MiG-23. However, the radar technology of Pakistan was still not upto the mark, due to which there were reportedly 620 occasions of airspace violations by Soviet aircraft in the first nine months of 1986, a wide increase over the 420 such incursions in the previous year.

The Quest for AWACS

Therefore, along with F-16, Pakistan was looking for more options to boost its military capabilities with Western weapon systems, especially since its primary rival India was leading the arms race with the support of the Soviet Union. Among the options, one was for E-3 “sentry” Airborne Early Warning & Control Aircraft (AEW&CS). E-3 would have solved the gaps faced by Pakistan in airspace monitoring, on both the Afghan and Indian fronts. 

An AWACS (Airborne Warning And Control System), or Airborne Early Warning & Control System (AEW&CS), is a specialized aircraft equipped with advanced radar and communication systems. Its main role is to detect and track aircraft, ships, and other objects over long distances, even beyond the horizon. The large radar dome, often seen on top of the plane, can monitor the airspace in all directions.

AWACS are crucial in military operations and referred to as "force multipliers", as they provide a comprehensive picture of the battlefield, helping commanders make informed decisions. They can also coordinate and direct fighter jets, guiding them to their targets or away from threats. Essentially, AWACS acts as the eyes and ears in the sky, ensuring that military forces have a clear understanding of what's happening around them. This is the reasons why they have been a key component of military forces since the introduction.

In 1986, the US Defence Secretary Caspar Willard Weinberger visited Pakistan and met both the then President Zia-ul-Haq and Prime Minster Mohammed Khan Junejo, along with other key officials of Pakistani administration and military. PM Junejo himself announced that Boeing E-3 Sentry emerged as “first choice” for airborne early warning equipment.

E-3 "Sentry". Source: United States Air Force

The original E-3A Sentry, introduced in the US Air Force in 1977 was a groundbreaking airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft that provided significant advancements in air surveillance and battle management. Its radar system offered 360-degree coverage, capable of detecting and tracking aircraft at ranges of up to 320 kilometers, allowing early warning of enemy threats. The E-3A could monitor airspace in real-time, coordinating and directing up to several dozen friendly aircraft during missions, making it a vital asset in maintaining air superiority. However, compared to modern variants, the original E-3A had more limited electronic intelligence and communication capabilities, with less resistance to electronic countermeasures and jamming. It was primarily focused on air defence, providing critical situational awareness to commanders, but lacked some of the multi-role flexibility and advanced data-sharing systems seen in later upgrades. Despite these limitations, the E-3A was a significant leap forward in airborne early warning and control during its time, greatly enhancing NATO and U.S. air operations during the Cold War.

The US yielded to Pakistan’s demands during the Soviet-Afghan war, as mentioned earlier, due to its usefulness in maintaining the anti-Soviet campaign. However, AWACS acquisition is a costly affair. It is an expensive and much more highly regarded platform in terms of US technology. There was also a risk of severe backlash from US opposition as well, which would have accused the government of spending taxpayers’ money on arming foreign nations in a conflict which the US is not even directly involved. Also, looking at the history of the region, there were major concerns regarding the stability in the region due to Indo-Pak relations.

A year later, in 1987, after looking at financial constraints, potential risks and facing the growing impossibility of securing the E-3, Pakistan turned its focus to the Grumman E-2 Hawkeye as a more attainable alternative to meet its airborne early warning needs. The aircraft was integrated with AN/APS-125 radar, offers 360-degree surveillance, and is designed primarily for carrier-based operations, making it highly versatile for naval environments. While the E-3 Sentry offers more extensive command and control capabilities and higher endurance, it comes at a significantly higher cost, typically around $270 million per aircraft, compared to the E-2C's cost of about $200 million. 

E-2 "Hawkeye". Source: military.com

Shifting Alliances and Unfulfilled Promises

The negotiations continued until 1989 in several phases. However, it started getting complicated because Soviet forces had started retreating from Afghanistan after their continuous efforts to gain control had failed, for which the credit goes to eh joint efforts of Islamabad and Washington. But now, Pakistan was not regarded as a crucial ally for the Reagan administration anymore. 

Also, General Zia-ul-Haq, who was a key ally of the U.S. in the Afghan-Soviet War, died in a plane crash in August 1988. Coincidentally, his death occurred hours after he witnessed a firepower demonstration by the US-made Abrams tank which was held in Bahawalpur. The US had offered Abrams tank to Pakistan but performed poorly in evaluations and was not fit for Pakistani operational conditions. Also during the demonstrations, the tank allegedly missed the targets during the demonstration, which was no less than an embarrassment for the US. His death led to political instability in Pakistan and a shift in leadership. The new leadership was less aligned with U.S. strategic objectives, and the political dynamics changed, which impacted the U.S.-Pakistan relationship.

M1A1 Abrams during demonstrations in Pakistan. Source: Reddit

After the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the strategic need for U.S. support to Pakistan significantly diminished. The end of the Soviet-Afghan War marked a shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities, as the immediate threat of Soviet expansion in the region was no longer a pressing concern. The U.S. began to reassess its focus and realign its geopolitical strategies, placing less emphasis on Pakistan and redirecting attention to other regional and global issues.

The biggest shock came when the U.S., under George H.W. Bush administration elected in January 1990, announced to suspension of military aid and imposed sanctions under the “Pressler Amendment” in October same year. Though introduced in 1985 under Reagan’s administration, Pakistan maintained its position as a strategic ally for the US due to its importance against the Soviets. It needed the US President to certify annually that Pakistan is not involved in any nuclear weapon development (based on available intelligence), and is safe for strategic co-operation. It was imposed when evidence emerged of Pakistan's nuclear ambitions, as US intelligence suspected China was assisting Pakistan in designing nuclear weapons. The Pressler Amendment had killed all the hopes of Islamabad for continued US support in its desire to acquire more arms and ammunition designed by the West. The AWACS negotiations were halted, and the F-16 airframes pending delivery were also held back. This significantly impacted Pakistan's defence procurement timeline, causing a almost 20-year delay in acquiring AWACS capabilities, which were eventually fulfilled with the induction of SAAB 2000 “Erieye” AEW&CS in 2009, in the deal signed for four such from Sweden in 2006, with each airframe costing US$93 million. Even today, Pakistan is reportedly receiving SAAB aircraft, as the latest unit was inducted in January 2024, bringing the total number to 9, with more suspected to come. Presently, Pakistan’s fleet of AWACS even outnumbers the Indian Air Force that operates 6 systems of the segment.

Pakistan Air Force SAAB 2000 "Erieye". Source: SAAB

Bonus: The myth of Indian AWACS in 1971 war

During the 1971 war, the Indian Air Force (IAF) executed daring low-level night strikes on Pakistani airfields, using MiG-21 and Su-7 aircraft from the Combat Air Development Unit (CADU), which has evolved into TACDE today. These missions were particularly challenging due to the lack of navigation aids, blackout conditions, and extremely low fuel levels that left no margin for error. To ensure the safe return of their pilots, the IAF developed an innovative solution known as the "Sparrow" mission. These involved positioning a high-altitude fighter, generally a MiG-21 Type 77 (from No.1 “Tigers” squadron based at Adampur) referred to as "Sparrow," to relay navigation and recovery information to the returning strike aircraft, helping them safely locate and land at friendly bases, despite the absence of reliable communication or radar detection.

The "Sparrow" concept was simple yet highly effective. The high-altitude fighters, flown by skilled pilots, would stay aloft at endurance speed, well away from enemy interception but close enough to relay vital information. These missions were crucial in guiding the strike aircraft back to bases like Amritsar, Halwara, or Adampur, often at the very edge of their fuel range. Despite the inherent risks and the rudimentary technology at hand, this method allowed the IAF to conduct successful night operations with minimal losses, showcasing the resourcefulness and adaptability of the pilots and ground controllers.

In the aftermath of the war, Pakistan, surprised by the effectiveness of the IAF's night strikes, speculated that these operations were supported by sophisticated Soviet AWACS aircraft, specifically the "Moss" AEW planes, based on Tu-126. This assumption underestimated the ingenuity of the IAF, which had relied on its resources and innovative tactics rather than external assistance. The success of the approximately 30 "Sparrow" missions, achieved with minimal technological support, stood in stark contrast to the Pakistani claims, highlighting the IAF's ability to outmaneuver and out-think its adversary using homegrown solutions.

Tupolev Tu-126 "Moss"


 Footnotes:

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-10-17-mn-5576-story.html 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://capsindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/CAPS_Infocus_RS_21.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjw-c2F_ayIAxXWzjgGHQCKG1YQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Ry3jHBm2b3YVhXtwX45lF

https://prod-appfeeds.intoday.in/magazine/international/story/19870531-pak-scales-down-its-quest-to-the-twin-engined-hawkeye-instead-of-the-e-3a-sentry-awacs-798876-1987-05-30

 

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Synopsis of India-Pakistan Air Power Roadmap for Future

Since the very independence of the two countries, India and Pakistan have been involved in an arms race similar to what we used to see during the Cold War between the USSR and the USA. Both are regarded as regional powers who aim to possess assets which can outmatch the other during the times of conflict. It is also seen as a necessity, based on the experience where the subcontinent has seen 2 full-scale wars, several skirmishes and multiple standoffs since 1947. The air forces has also undergone a remarkable evolution, transitioning from its origins as a remnant of British rule to now being regarded among the world's best, both in terms of quantity and quality.

In this article, we are going to deep dive into the air power capabilities of India and Pakistan, focusing on the roadmap aimed for next coming decade (2025-2035). We will look at the plans envisaged so far to strengthen their capabilities. This will also help in analysing which party has a broader vision for its future, with aspirations to cope with the emerging technologies.

Pakistan

Fifth Generation Fighter acquisition from Turkey and China

Pakistan is currently looking at two ally nations, Turkey and China, to procure a 5th generation fighter for its Air Force. The country was earlier looking at its own indigenous fifth-generation fighter development programme called “AZM” when it was announced in 2017. However, years after limited information sharing regarding its design stage, the program was scrapped due to unspecified reasons, believed to be a lack of standalone financial and R&D capabilities. This encompasses more than just designing the aircraft but also the critical components that can be integrated within it, such as the flight control systems and electronics.

TAI KAAN Prototype P0
 

Turkey is flight-testing its first-ever stealth fighter: KAAN (earlier known as TF-X). The aircraft is aimed to be inducted into service by 2030. In an interview with Pakistani media in 2022, the CEO of Turkish Aerospace (TUSAŞ), Temel Kotil, personally announced a new designated fighter called "Turkish Pakistani Fighter-X (TPF-X), which was assumed to be a new fifth-generation fighter aircraft to  be jointly developed by Pakistan and Turkey, though based on original TF-X. In August 2023 as well, Turkish Deputy Defence Minister Celal Sami Tüfekçi officially stated that Ankara and Islamabad would initiate discussions about Pakistan joining the project as a partner. TFX already has Azerbaijan as its official partner, and it is seeking more partners to support its fifth-generation fighter programme both with fiscal and R&D assistance. One can assume that Pakistan would be able to provide certain know-how on fighter development based on its learning from the JF-17 project with China. The current prototype and the next few prototypes of KAAN will serve as a technology demonstrator. TAI has planned to manufacture 29 prototypes, where each will introduce upgrades to the airframe as per the studies and learnings from preceding prototypes. The current timeline also aims to start the delivery of the aircraft to the Turkish Air Force from 2028.

Shenyang FC-31
 

Now speaking of China, the country is looking forward to continue the bilateral cooperation by going ahead with the fifth-generation fighter deal as well. The second fifth-generation fighter aircraft being developed by Beijing, called the FC-31 by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC), is also on radar of the Pakistan Air Force. The aircraft is currently seen to be focused on Chinese carrier-borne operations, as observed by recent test flights of the naval variant known as FC-35. However, the FC-31 since the beginning was designed as a platform also aimed for export, unlike the J-20 which was the first fifth-generation fighter produced by China. In an event held in early January 2024, the Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar made a surprise announcement that talks are ongoing with China to procure the J-31.

 “The foundation for acquiring the J-31 stealth fighter aircraft has already been laid which is all set to become part of the PAF’s fleet in the near future,” he stated. 

Presently, the FC-31 (J-31 for service standard aircraft) is yet to appear publicly. However, scale models are often showcased by AVIC (state-owned aerospace and defence conglomerate, similar to United Aircraft Corporation of Russia) in major trade shows, pitching it for export. This confirmed that PAF would likely make a move regarding a possible acquisition of the fifth-generation fighter within a year or two.

It is noteworthy that both KAAN and J-31 are twin-engine fighter aircraft. If procured, this will give PAF its first-ever experience in acquiring and maintaining a twin-engine fighter after Shenyang J-6, which was retired in 2002 after more than 37 years of service. Both aircraft will be integrated with state-of-the-art weapon armament, radar and avionics suite developed by the host country. The KAAN will offer Turkish homegrown range of air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground munitions. Same for J-31 with Chinese air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground munitions. Pakistan will also carry out integration of its own, like it did with JF-17. Examples include the integration of REK bombs, which it employed during infamous Operation Swift Retort.

JF-17 Evolution

The JF-17 family of light combat aircraft will go nowhere and continue to serve the needs of the Pakistan Air Force for the coming decades. The latest iteration stands at Block III-spec aircraft which boasts the integration of Chinese KLJ-7A AESA radar, new avionics and EW suite and armament package. In upcoming blocks, presumably Block IV and Block V, newer technologies will be integrated to meet the demands of the future. This includes a VR integrated helmet with Eye-tracking command technology. This concept will be like a "wearable cockpit", that is a helmet powered by AI that can understand commands by eye movements. This will generally reduce the workload of the pilot in intense combat scenarios. 

Then is the Manned UnManned-Teaming (MUM-T). It will be similar to the Indian Combat Air Teaming System (CATS), where the objective will be to deploy the platform as a "mothership", controlling a swarm of drones on a recce, intelligence or combat mission. 

Then heading to the airframe components, at present composites are involved in constructing some proportion of modern JF-17 airframe, but the next plan is to apply Radar Absorbent Material (RAM) coating to significantly decrease the aircraft's Radar Cross Section (RCS), denying early tracking by hostile air defence systems.

JF-17 Block III
 

These upgrades, along with more which will be unveiled with time, will continue the development cycle of JF-17 to maintain it as a suitable fighter capable of dealing with changing threat scenarios. From Block I to Block III, Pakistan has gained invaluable experience in manufacturing fighter aircraft on its home soil and it looking to further nurture its production line with future variants as well. The demand for aircraft in the foreign market is also increasing, as observed by recent deals with Myanmar and Nigeria adn interests from more countries in Middle East, Africa and Asian regions. JF-17 will play the same role for Pakistan what F-16 is playing for USA.

F-16 upgrade from Turkey

The F-16 has remained the mainstay of Pakistan Air Force for more than 3 decades now. In 2010, PAF received the advanced F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft. The F-16A/B Block 15 variant which arrived between 1983-1987 saw Mid Life Upgradation (MLU) in 2012 which brought it to AM/BM Block 20 standard with new sub-systems and armament, including Beyond Visual Range (BVR) combat capability. While these airframes will slowly become obsolete, along with the F-16 Air Defence Fighter (ADF) variant it brough second hand from Jordan, there is still significant service life left in Block 52 aircraft, and it will soon need a MLU as well.

The Turkish Air Force also raised the requirement to upgrade its own fleet of more than 200 F-16s. For this, TAI has initiated Project OZGUR. This upgrade includes Turkish own indigenously produced AESA radar (MURAD), mission computer, new air-to-air (which includes Bozdoğan, or Merlin, close-range infrared homing missile and Gökdoğan (Peregrine), beyond-visual-range active radar homing missiles) and air to ground munitions package (including LGK-82 laser guided bomb, TEBER 82 glide bombs, SOM air-launched cruise missile and more), new electro-optical systems (next generation ASELSAN pods), cockpit modernization, and more. The upgrade package, being carried out in phases, will empower the existing Block 30/40/50 aircraft with extended life and enhanced capabilities.

TAI upgraded F-16AM Block 20. The airframe (#84-606) is accredited with the claim of shooting down an Indian Air Force Su-30MKI in 2019  
 

TAI was infact involved in the upgradation of the PAF F-16A/B aircraft as well. Pakistan can likely reach out Turkey to integrate the OZGUR upgrade for its F-16 Block 52 aircraft as well which will make sure the aircraft will keep complementing the future fighters of PAF for further more years.

New Attack Helicopters

In June 2018, the United States, under the Trump administration, put a hold on the US$952 million deal which was intended to supply 15 units of state-of-the-art AH-1Z “Viper” to Pakistan. The first batch of the helicopters were already produced and flaunted Pakistan Army markings. However, soon after the announcement regarding the deal being put on hold was made, the helicopters were sent to cold storage in Arizona. Since then, Islamabad has been looking at alternatives from other countries, namely Turkey and China. The TAI T-129 ATAK (a Turkish derivative of Augusta Westland A-129) is the lead contender, for which the negotiations are going on, though with difficulties. Since 2019, US has been objecting the deal by refusing to offer export license for LHTEC T800-4A engines that power the helicopter. Ankara is in constant efforts to persuade US to lift the objection in order to move forward with the US$1.5 billion sale. 

TAI T-292 ATAK II

However, it is also developing a next-generation iteration of the T-129 as a standalone program. Known as T-929 ATAK 2, the helicopter will have homegrown systems, which will reduce its dependency on foreign powers and give full control of its utilization and export. The new helicopter will also be in the league of AH-64 “Apache” heavy chopper. It will give more favorable chances for Pakistan to choose it since it will directly compete with India’s AH-64E procurement. However, as the Turkish helicopter is yet to complete all the flight certifications, it will take likely 2-3 more years before it  becomes export-ready. 

Z-10ME
 

The Chinese Z-10 is also being reported multiple times as a contender chosen by Pakistan. It is believed that the deal has already been signed and first photos or details can emerge anytime this year. This could be similar to J-10 procurement by PAF. The fighter pilots had already finished their training on the platform before the deal was made public regarding the existence of such fighter aircraft’s deal between Islamabad and Beijing. The helicopter is in service with PLA for more than 10 years now, and went through several upgradations. 

While Z-10ME is a light-to-medium weight attack helicopter, China has also started flight testing of a new attack helicopter, called the Z-21, which caters to the heavy-weight class. This helicopter will take further more years for testing and certifications before pitched for export (if there exists any plans).

India

Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) and Multi-Role Carrier Based Fighter (MRCBF)

Among the most controversial subjects since years, the move to purchase new Multi-role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) is still yet to be taken by New Delhi. The aspiration to acquire 114 foreign fighter aircraft to deal with the squadron shortage hasn’t materialized despite the delays with indigenous solutions. The earlier plan to acquire 126 aircraft with Transfer of Technology (ToT) was cancelled and replaced with direct import of 36 units of Dassault Rafale with Indian Specific Enhancements (ISE), which involved integration of Infra-Red Search and Track (IRST), Helmet Mounted Display (Israeli Elbit TARGO II), weapon modifications, and more. However, instead of a follow on order, the Indian government is looking to launch a fresh tender, which will open doors for more OEMs to pitch their products. So far, American F-15, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, SAAB Gripen are looking to pave their way via the new tender, where it will also need to establish a production line in India to fulfill the "Make in India" requirement involving ToT. 

Though not officially hinted, it is believed that Rafale will once again grab the new order as it would be beneficial for maintaining logistical chain with single type of aircraft. Inducting a new type of aircraft will bring challenges and additional costs for crew training and logistics acquisition.  However, there is still no significant development in the regard of MRCA, and it will take no less than 5 years before coming to the final decision with the chosen aircraft. Indian Air Force has to wait before it will receive new batch of foreign designed fighter platform.

Indian Air Force Dassault Rafale(s)

Speaking of Indian Navy, it has chosen Dassault Rafale M fighter aircraft over the American F/A-18E/F "Super Hornet" Block III fighter after series of evaluations and trials. The aircraft will cover the interim requirement until the indigenous solution as Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) is developed. Earlier, the plan was to procure 57 fighters to arm the two aircraft carriers of the Indian Navy: INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant, and replace the curently serving MiG-29K fighters. However, as TEDBF was envisaged, the plan changed to reduce the number of MRCBF. The government of India has already received the price bids of the aircraft in December 2023 and negotiations are likely to be completed before formal announcement of the contract by the end of 2024 or early 2025.

Indigenous aircraft eco-system

New Delhi is repeatedly making efforts to establish a mature aircraft development and production eco-system. The LCA Tejas was the foundation stone which initiated this aim to build sufficient R&D capabilities in order to churn out state of the art aircraft to fulfill Indian requirements. Presently, there are multiple fighter programmes ongoing, each with dedicated technological leap. Firstly, the Indian Air Force will start inducting the Tejas Mk1A aircraft this year, which made its first flight in March 2024. Mk1A introduces multiple upgrades over Mk1, including AESA radar (ELTA 2052 and indigenous Uttam), better avionics and electronic warfare suite and expanded armament package. In 2021, a contract was signed to supply 73 single seat Mk1A fighters to IAF, while another tender has been launched in April 2024 for acquisition of 97 more units. The total quantity of the jets will soon stand to 180, outnumbering Mirage 2000, MiG-29 and MiG-23 combined, which were acquired in the 80s to counter Pakistan’s F-16 procurement.

While Mk1A sports minor structural variance over Mk1, the next variant called the LCA Mk2 will take the airframe to the next level with larger size and addition of canards. The new aircraft will also integrate more advanced technologies including enhanced indigenous radar, new electronic warfare suite, glass cockpit with wide area display, long range precision strike capability against both aerial and ground targets, etc.. The first prototype of LCA Mk2 is already under construction and likely see roll out and maiden flight between 2026-2029, with inductions tentatively planned from 2031. 

Render of LCA Mk2 (by Kuntal Biswas)

 Tejas Mk2 will also serve as a stepping stone for Advanced medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the fifth generation fighter programme solely being designed and developed by India. The technologies planned for AMCA will see early incorporation in Tejas Mk2, which will give enough time to trial the systems before integrating them into a more sophisticated aircraft. However, the development cycle needs to be completed within adequate timelines and without major delays. In March 2024, the Indian Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) had approved the design and development of the first prototype. The prototype aircraft and the initial variant (said to be AMCA Mk1A) will be powered by twin American GE F414 engines. However, these could be replaced by turbofan engines from other OEMs which are offering ToT on acceptable terms. The leading contenders are Safran of France and Rolls Royce of UK. However, the initial focus is on the first prototype and its performance, which is expected to be rolled out and take on its maiden flight between 2028-2030.

There is also a plan to fulfill the requirements of the Indian Navy with Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF). The aircraft was introduced in April 2020 as a successor of LCA Navy programme, which has been accepted a technology demonstrator to study carrier borne aircraft development. The TEDBF will be the 4.5 generation platform which will replace the MiG-29K and complement the MRCBF on Indian Navy carrier decks. The Preliminary Design Review of the platform is likely to be completed by the end of 2024. Looking at the current renders and mock-ups displayed officially, the aircraft has resemblance to Tejas Mk2 due to the existence of canards and similar cropped delta wing configuration, but with twin engine configuration, which make it strikingly similar to Rafale. However, the aircraft is being designed indigenously by Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA).

Combined Air Teaming System (CATS)

One of the most sophisticated projects undertaken by India, CATS is a Manned-Unmanned Teaming (M-UMT) concept. It is based on the idea that during an operation, a manned aircraft, called the "mothership" remains within the designated (and safe from hostile/threats) territory while a range of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles take the lead in targeting objects located nearly 700 kilometers away. The largest UCAV, called the "Warrior", will equipped with a suite of missiles tailored for both air and ground assaults. Alfa-S, the smallest, will operate in swarms and conduct kamikaze strikes on the target. Then is the Hunter Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) which will also form a parts in CATS. It will be subsonic and will carry a stealth profile with shape adn terrain hugging capabilities, targeting hostile fortifications within 250 kilometre ranges.

CATS aims to suitably facilitate the fusion of human cognitive abilities, encompassing decision-making and intuition, with the precision and lethal capabilities inherent in machinery. Pilots aboard the manned aircraft gain access to ground visuals relayed by the Warrior, which essentially function as drone, UCAV or a "loyal wingman". It will also guide the swarm drones towards the targets or monitor the activity if the target data is pre-defined. The CATS was unveiled during Aero India 2021, and it is planned to be integrated with indigenous Tejas aircraft as well as Jaguar Deep Penetration Strike Fighter (DPSA).

 

MUMT technology is already being tested worldwide by major powers. Initiatives in the United States (such as the Collaborative Combat Aircraft or CCA), Australia (the Air Teaming System or ATS), and the United Kingdom (Project Tempest) are advancing in the field of this concept to develop and maximise the synergy between human brain and machine capability (and intelligence).

UCAV fleet expansion

The current Indian Armed Forces inventory of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, in the Medium/High Altitude Long Endurance (MALE/HALE) class is comparatively less than the Pakistan Air Force which maintains a great margin of difference in terms of quantity of unmanned aerial systems. However, though slow, there is an expansion ongoing. Recent inductions include MALE Hermes 900 (known as Dristi 10), produced in house by Adani Defence. Navy is also operating MQ-9B "Sea Guardian" since 2020, and employed it for actual operations. The UAV flies regular sorties close to International Border with Pakistan and China. In March 2024, the UAV also maintained close surveillance during Indian Navy operation which rescued the MV Ruen vessel in the Gulf of Aden, 2600 km off the Indian Coast.  The Indian Air Force also inducted Heron Mk2 drones in August 2023. However, the UAVs mentioned are primarily for reconnaissance and surveillance purposes and not combat. The first dedicated combat drones, or UCAVs are likely to be introduced with MQ-9B (SeaGuardian/SkyGuardian) “Predators”, which will be distributed among the three wings (15 for Navy, 8 for Army and 8 for Air Force). 

SWiFT UCAV


Furthermore, indigenous drone programmes, most notable of which is the Ghatak UCAV, is in development with great progress going on. The downscaled technology demonstrator of the platform, Stealth Wing Flying Testbed (SWiFT) has already completed multiple fight trials. The SWIFT development will help in studying the factors involved in the production of a UCAV in Flying Wing configurattion. These will be executed in the development of the actual-sized Ghatak aircraft, implementing all the technologies and produce a formidable UCAV by 2025. Another indigenous UCAV, Archer, for short range air to ground and surveillance missions, is under development. It has went through some terminology and design changes since it was originally introduced. However, there was no deviation from the actual  role and capabilities planned with this platform. 

If compared with Pakistan, it already boasts multiple types of UCAV in service, which are imported as well as developed locally. The former includes recently inducted Turkish MALE Bayraktar TB-2, HALE Akıncı, Chinese MALE CH-4. The indigenously produced drones which are already inducted are NESCOM Burraq and GIDS Shahpar. As one can see, India lags behind Pakistan when it comes to flaunting a sufficient size of UCAV fleet.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the air power roadmaps of India and Pakistan for the future demonstrate their commitment to countering each other while maintaining deterrence. Both nations are steadily progressing by absorbing the latest technologies and capabilities. Pakistan's strategic collaborations with Turkey and China showcase its efforts towards acquiring fifth-generation fighters and upgrading its existing fleet. Meanwhile, India's emphasis on indigenous aircraft development reflects its pursuit of self-reliance and technological advancement. 

Sunday, May 30, 2021

Unreliable J-15, Obsolete B-52, incapable Tejas and more: A look at major Myths regarding modern military aviation and realities


Since the revolution of internet has begun, the scale of information transfer has increased upto a scale where 8 out of 10 people today consider internet posts as their source of information. While it indeed serve as an outstanding platform for necessary data sharing, the readers should also be very much critical on what they see, what they believe and what they share. 

The public discussions and debates related to strategic affairs are always a subject with limitations. A proportion of information never make it to public due to "risk of national security" and the ones that made it, also contains some made -up and assumed figures, such as radar range estimates, radar cross sections, and many such more data which are only shared among actual operators.

However, discussions on forums also offers a great deal of information, but flaws are emminents and needs official clarifications based on facts and figures provided from actual statistics and thorough analysis. These flaws give birth to Myths and these are most utilised to win any arguments, specially on social media platforms that is no less that a digital battlefield.

Sources of Myths


Before heading straight into the topic, it is necessary to understand that myths can be sourced from anywhere on web. But most specifically, these arrive from nationalist media of rival countries. A media house based in China may find several errors in F-22 while US based media can point out flaws with J-20. Second can be various social media handles with mass publics, whose tweets are sometimes converted into news and it all then spreads like a virus (well that's a well understandable example to define).

Another is clickbaits, where the entire focus is on luring people to click the link. These usually do not contain any credible sources (or in many instances, there isn't even one).

Another is very famous, the armchair generals found on social media. With speculations driving their theories, the

So lets now head into the chapter and see the realities behind some of the major military aviation myths.

1. Unreliable Chinese J-15





Majority of the Chinese origin weapons remain under long-term controversy due to their lack of originality. Ground vehicles like DongFeng Mengshi family that resembles a lot to HMMWV "Humvee", helicopter like Z-20 that shares a near accurate design as that of UH-60 "Blackhawk", combat aircraft like J-15, that is the same design as that of Russian Su-33, that we are going to talk about in the following:

Myth:

J-15 is unreliable for deck (carrier) operations due to large size and heavyweight characteristic.

Fact:

The Shenyang J-15 "Flying Shark" final design was prepared after thorough study of a Su-33 unfinished prototype named T-10K, that was recieved from Ukraine back in 2001. The airframe was evaluated by Chinese engineers at AVIC and following similar improvements as that of Russians, Chinese developed a matured variant from the unit. Hence, design similarities between J-15 and Su-33 are obvious.

While it is indeed true that the aircraft is heavyweight, with Max TakeOff Weight (MTOW) of 6.5 tons according to expert figures, same as that of original Su-33. However, as both the aircraft carriers in service with PLAN are in Short TakeOff But Arrested Recovery (STOBAR) configuration, the aircraft needs to generate enough power on the launch point to achieve the required lift for takeoff, unlike the USN CATOBAR carriers that comes with catapult sytem for quick launch of fighters. Therefore, the payload affects the J-15's takeoff ability and it needs critical inspection of the loadout before the operations.

This, however, isn't at disadvantageous as it is projected in various forums. The aircraft do have limitations in its payload capacity, but still can carry a loadout in variety of combinations. 

1. 4x PL-12 BVR-AAMs and 2x PL-8 CCMs for standard Combat Air Patrol, occupying nearly 1 tons of weight.

2. 4x PL-12 BVR-AAMs and 4x PL-8 CCMs for standard intercept, occupying nearly 1.5 tons of weight.

3. 2x YJ-83K Anti-Ship Missiles, 2x PL-8 CCMs , and 2x PL-12 BVR-AAMs for standard anti-ship operation, occupying nearly 2 tons of weight. 



These specifications are already tested, demonstrated and actively in service without very much of the issues. Being a fighter tasked for the role of a carrierborne air superiority platform, the organisation expects its performance to be sufficient to deal with variety of threats in the sea as well as over it.

The size of the aircraft, is indeed massive, as it is based on Flanker family ofcourse. With Length of 21.9 m and wingspan of 14.7 m, one squadron of the aircraft constitures significant space on the deck. Small deck size was another factor that lead to procurement of MiG-29K by Indian Air Force, technological superiority was another factor. A J-15 occupies complete space (till the edge) on the elevator/lift of PLAN "Liaoning" aircraft carrier, the first aircraft carrier in service and first to host J-15 fighter squadrons, followed by PLAN "Shandong", developed in house by the nation under Type 002 project.

Conclusion:

The aircraft do have some limitations when operating from aircrafts carriers, but still not ineffective as stated by many other information outlets. Infact, even if it suffer such problems, the Chinese has no other option for its replacement. The current planned FC/J-31 5th generation fighter aircraft for career operations is not yet ready and PLA planned to deploy the same J-15T on their upcoming Catapult equipped Type 003 aircraft carrier. However, there are also speculations on an under development J-31 naval derivative that will eventually replace the 4th generation J-15 and upgrade the PLAN air arm to the standards of west, where 5th generation platforms are actively participating in combat ops. 

2. B-52 is now obsolete




One of the most common theory that we come across in various discussions is that bombers are now obsolete. Back in time, the bombers, as the name suggest, were defined as "bomb trucks" which could accommodate a heavy payload of munitions in its bomb bay, that was not possible for any fighter aircraft. And even today, the payload capacity of aircrafts like US B-52 "Stratofortress", or Russian Tu-160 "Black Swan" is still unmatched by any fighter jet in the world. However, what critics believe that as the bombers were originally configured for conventional bombing, with direct insertion into the combat zone, the present era with precision guided munitions reduced the necessity of conventional bombing. And introduction of Betond Visual Range (BVR) air-to-air missiles, the bombers would be under high risk while operating in a mission.

Myth:

As Precision Guided Munitions are most commonly used strike solutions, old age bombers are now obsolete for modern warfare

Fact:

While the quantity of strategic bombers present in the modern era is quite less than what was in the previous century, they still hold a significant psotion in Air Force of US, Russia and China. USAF at present has 3 types of strateguc bomber platforms available, that are: B-52H "Stratofortress", B2A "Spirit" and B1B "Lancer". While there is a complete generation gap between B-52 and B-2, the B-52 still adapted to face modern day challenges, since it's induction in 1955. The aircraft analog intruments are now replaced with digital systems, radars are enhanced for better precision and EW suite providdes better survivability durong combat missions. The aircraft has now more diverse weapon package than Cold War. 



Even though a lot of critics, conventional bombing is still practised in many situations. A chain of enemy fortifications, or a convoy of vehicles, both are very common targets in battlefield and hence, a carpet bomb deployement is preferred for heavy effect. However, this is safe only when the airspace is not contested and free from any adversary air-to-air or surface-to-air threat, eg Afghanistan, where coaligion forces on ground recieve Close Air Support on regular basis. While it's also true that precision bombing is now more common, the B-52 also integrates solution for this as well. It is now capable of carrying satellite guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), AGM-86 Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM), Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), and much more, all that can be deployed from far way ranges (standoff) without directly entering the combat zone. This ensures the safe in-flight operarions of the aircraft.

Conclusion:


While B-52H is old, the aircraft still holds a lot of potential to follpw the offensive doctrine of United States military and one of the most effective asset to be utilised in battlefield and case heavy damage to the adversary. Even the counterparts, like Russian Tu-160 and Chinese H-6, are very much capable of large scale bombing of any hostile strategic location, by deploying necessary munitions at standoff ranges, safe from interceptors.

3. Immature Su-57




The period of Cold War witnessed immense development and funding by superpowers on strengthening their military arsenal. From secretly developing high grade platforms for offensive tasks, to mass producing assets in order to keep the military preparedness high throughout the year. However, as the USSR disintegrated in 1991, the economy declined drastically and US held the position as the sole superpower, with status untouched by any other nation or even regional alliances. However, succession of Russia didn't put the military research and development at stake. The funding was indeed cut short and major programmes were either delayed or cancelled, but few still made their way to still make Russia as one of the strongest nations and weapon exporter of the world. The latest 5th generation Su-57 "Felon" is one kf the examples.

Myth:

Even after being new, the Russian 5th generation fighter aircraft is still nowhere close to true 5th generation standards

Fact:

Before directly jumping into mythbusting, we need to understand what actually are the criterias for an aircraft to be called as 5th gen:

1. Supercruise: Ability to sustain supersonic speeds for higher time, without afterburners. It can be attained by reliable engines with fuel efficiency and light airframe (not to be confused with overall weight).
2. Stealth: Ability to avoid radar (airborne or ground based) detection for long time. It can be attained with coating of Radar Absorbent Material (RAM) and composites.
3. Data fusion: Capability to recieve, process, utilise and transfer multiple data at faster rate, along with networking with other units.
4. Low Probability of Intercept Radar (LPIR): Radar with low radiation spread, that heps in dodging enemy passive radar systems.

All these are, infact present in the Su-57. The main argument is the delay in the aircraft's induction by the owner, Russian Federation itself. Started under "PAK FA", project was kickstarted in 2002, with Sukhoi leading the design phase. The first prototype T-50 took the skies for first time in 2010, officially rivaling the American counterpart F-22 "Raptor", 10 years late than the latter.



However, the funding was not enough and Russia approached its allies offering joint development of the platform. India, that was itself searching for new Multirole fighters was a suitable contender and it went succesful when Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) programme was approved to jointly produce a customized variant of Su-57 and share the costs of development. However, there were still dissatisfaction regarding the costs between them as well, leading to further more delays, and causing Russia to independently invest on its first 5th generation aircraft.

Now while the aircraft has recieved its first official order in 2020 for 76 aircrafts, the point is clear that it is late. Another fighters in the same league, the Chinese J-20 entered service in 2017, even when the first flight took place an year later than T-50. The drawbacks are that the production plant will first focus on fulfilling the requirements of Russian Air Force and then looks at exports. Another drawback is the crash occured in 2019 during a test flight of the serial produced unit (bort number "01 blue) due to control system failure. While it was not first time a jet crashed during a testing stage or even a 5th generation platform, it really affected the reputation on Russian aerospace firm and most specifically, the Izdeliye 30 engines, exclusive to Su-57 and will be present in the serial production variant as well.

However, crashes and accidents during test stage of a system are sometimes beneficiary(with lack of fatalities), as the enguneers will be able to make necessary tweaks related to software, hydraulics or any other component that suffered failure. 

Conclusion:

With a rich history and experience of producing some of the marvellous families of fighter aircrafts from Mikoyan and Sukhoi, and also recieving interests from many foreign customers, it is expected that Russia will be able to attain the necessary equivalent of 5th generation platform to its adversary in coming years, while also offereing significant edge to the allies from regional threats.

4. Incapable Tejas




Tejas is a single engine lightweight fighter aircraft, and second combat jet to be researched and developed within India. The aircraft is primarily focused to replace the ageing fighters of the Indian Air Force, including the MiG-21 "Bison" and retain the role as a "point defence" fighter. With an attempt by the nation to attain self-reliance in the defence industry, many derivatives of the platform are also working in parallel, that includes twin engine OmniRole Combat Aircraft (ORCA) and Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF), sharing similar design characteristics albeit differences in roles and major components. 

Myth:

Tejas took a long time for development and hence, a highly immature and incapable platform

Fact:

The Tejas came out from the LCA programme initiated in late 80s, with the final design was freezed in 1990 and original Phase 1 for full-fledged development started in 1993. After overall design and avionics tested both artificially and on ground, the first prototype/technology demonstrator took the skies in year 2001, 8 years after the full-fledged development initiated. When now when we compare it with Chinese J-10, that started its full-fledged development in 1986 and first flight took place 12 years later, in 1998. And also looking at Eurofighter Typhoon, that started its full-fledged development in 1983 and took the skies from first time in 1994, 11 whole years. Therefore, when it comes development period, the HAL LCA managed to take the flag earlier than other similar projects.



However, the original issue is the time taken for formal induction into the service and actual deployement on operations. After completion of all the trials using technology development units and limited series production unit, the Indian Air Force introduced first squadron of LCA in 2016, albeit in Initial Operational Clearance (IOC) configuration that was awarded in 2011. With 10,000+ flying hours in the inventory, and integrating out minor additions like an In-flight refuelling (IFR) probe and a 23mm internal cannon, the Tejas recieved a go-ahead for Final Operarional Clearance in 2019. As every weapon system enters a IOC phase, the transition from IOC to FOC always take time extending from 5 or more years in order to check the durability, resilience, performance and endurance of variety of componets integrated.

While this was all about the time period, now lets come to Tejas capability. It is worth noting that the Tejas Mk1 and its combat capability is still based on what was proposed in early 2000s. Effective Beyond Visual Range (BVR) capability to achieve the interceptor class. With Elta EL/M-2032 radar, the Tejas Mk.1 can track a 5m2 RCS fighter sized targets upto 120kms and engage them with its I-Derby medium range air-to-air missile, either in Lock On After Launch (LOAL) or Lock On Before Launch (LOBL) mode. On a standard intercept, it can carry upto 2-4 BVR-AAMs and 2 CCMs. With provision of Elbit DASH IV (Display and Sight Helmet), the platform operator can actively deploy necessary weapon to engage the adversary. These capabilities are indeed what is necessary to replace another interceptor like MiG-21, that is a decent and lethal firepower to face hostiles under quick response. Reportedly, the actual deployement, replacing a MiG-21 squadron will soon take place between 2021-22, allowing it to undertake combat missions. In 2020, amid military crisis with China, the platform was temporarily deployed in the western sector but backed out after completing the period.

However, Tejas Mk1 is still not satisfactory for the Indian Air Force to attain the edge that it is looking for. The Tejas Mk1A proppsed back in 2015 and finally recieving clearance in 2021. This particular standard's effectiveness is what the Tejas was expected to provide earlier. Further enhancing the engagement capabilites, the Tejas Mk1A will offer true multirole capabilities with interation of new Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) and Anti-Ship Missiles, as well as integrate an indigenous Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, Uttam, researched and developed by state owned Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) and in final phase of tests.

Conclusion:

While the Tejas Mk1 is indeed late when it comes to the period from first flight to actual operational sorties. The programme had to face various political hurdles and financial backing as well, creating further problems for the Indian Air Force. However, with progress fast tracked with new orders and costing alloted, the Tejas will soon see itself as a trustworthy asset in the South Asian region.

5. China's neglectance on JF-17




It is well known fact that JF-17 is developed by Chinese Chengdu Aerospace Corporation and development was assisted by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex. It is a light jet fighter capable of carrying out multi role operations. It is specially customised for Pakistan Air Force. Right now, there are 2 active variants: JF-17 Block I and JF-17 Block II. Twin seater JF-17B is in testing phase and Block III under development. The Block I JF-17s were developed by China and then parts were imported by Pakistan, where they assemble it. Block II is more indigenous than Block I as few internal components and airframe structure are developed in Pakistan, and China's share in manufacturing declined. Production of both Block I and Block II variant are now stopped in order to focus on development of Block III. 50 JF-17A Block I, 62 JF-17A Block II and 26 twin seat JF-17B Block II aircrafts are produced till date and overhauling of Block I aircraft to Block II standards is under progress.

Myth:

The underperforming attribute of Sino-Pak JF-17 is what makes China to reject it for its own Air Force

Fact:

There is a wide misconception in the minds of people regarding the question: why China, even after being the main contributor in the project, doesn't operate any unit of this aircraft in it's air force. Trolls are always available to blame the aircraft's "poor" performance and capability. But in reality, this is where they are wrong.

In order to understand the concept, a variety of factors are required to be explained. Let's start with operational environment and doctrine of both the nations. Pakistan is a country having a water body in the south and rest sides are surrounded by landmass of neighbour countries. It has barely 882,000 square kilometres of land available. Talking about China, it has 9,600,000 square kilometres of land available. You can see the difference. How both countries differ in area size. China has much much bigger area to control. And to protect it, they need aircraft suitable to operate in their sorroundings. China which is heading towards the status of next superpower, need equipments to "project power". As a rival of US, China needs something comparable to their weapons. JF-17 is a low budget fighter with limited BVR capability (2 BVRAAMs at a time but can be increased to 4 with dual racks), low range radar and light payload. It is only to patrol the borders but not to show some power to adversary. To show a power, aircrafts like J-11, Su 27, J-10, J-20, etc., are required which feature high end avionics and wide operational capabilities.



Second is project's expectation. Pakistan approached China for a low budget fighter, specially after the Super 7 project was scrapped due to sanctions placed by United States. Therefore, the aim was to develop a low cost aircraft with average avionics. With average level avionics, JF-17 wasn't intended to feature state-of-the-art and high quality avionics in order to perform heavy combat operations. Pakistan's main rival is India. Afghanistan don't have a strong air force, Pak-Iran relations are very good and China is their ally. So the only challenge in the neighbourhood is Indian Air Force which operates a good range of fighters. So they need to compete with India by creating an aircraft that can increase thr strength (numbers) of the air force. On the other hand, China already operates fighters like J-11 for air dominance role, JH-7 for strike role, F-7 for interception role and their most trustworthy aircraft J-10 for light-medium multirole. J-10 fulfills the same role as JF-17. Therefore, it is not possible for China to dump their indigenous fighter and choose another aircraft that was not suitable for their operational requirements.

Third is interest. Pakistan is not a major Economic power. It has experience of operating single engine fighters for a long time (they also operated twin engine Shenyang J-6 aircraft). Single engine fighters are easy to maintenance and less expensive than twin engine fighters. So Pakistan is more interested in single engine fighters as it comes in their budget comfortably. When we take a look at China, we see how they started leaning towards twin engine fighter familes. J-16, J-20 and J-31 are some fine examples to prove my point.

Conclusion:

With all this detailed explanation, it can be understood why JF-17 was never intended to be used by Chinese Air Force and they are more happy with their own arsenal. Succesful purchases by Myanmar and Nigeria also talks about the trust on platform (while cost also played an important), and assures that the aircraft is best suited under its destined role as a lightweight multirole combat aircraft.


Therefore, these are, while not all, but some of the most famous military aviaitim myths that we encounter on regular basis. The information provided are available on open source and backed by some trustworthy sources including the developers themselves.

While there is no end to fake news, to offer a fair analysis and comparison, it is always necessary to be a responsible actor and finding the actual case behind any news on social media. Not just on the defence but in any field of subject, a critical inspection should be the first priority before turning a claim into fact. 

Keeping in mind that this series will soon followed by another part, make sure to give us a follow on our official page Military Marvels

THANKS FOR READING !


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