Since the very independence of the two countries, India and Pakistan have been involved in an arms race similar to what we used to see during the Cold War between the USSR and the USA. Both are regarded as regional powers who aim to possess assets which can outmatch the other during the times of conflict. It is also seen as a necessity, based on the experience where the subcontinent has seen 2 full-scale wars, several skirmishes and multiple standoffs since 1947. The air forces has also undergone a remarkable evolution, transitioning from its origins as a remnant of British rule to now being regarded among the world's best, both in terms of quantity and quality.
In this article, we are going to deep dive into the air power capabilities of India and Pakistan, focusing on the roadmap aimed for next coming decade (2025-2035). We will look at the plans envisaged so far to strengthen their capabilities. This will also help in analysing which party has a broader vision for its future, with aspirations to cope with the emerging technologies.
Pakistan
Fifth Generation Fighter acquisition from Turkey and China
Pakistan is
currently looking at two ally nations, Turkey and China, to procure a 5th
generation fighter for its Air Force. The country was earlier looking at its own indigenous fifth-generation
fighter development programme called “AZM” when it was announced in 2017. However, years after limited information sharing regarding its design stage, the program was scrapped due to unspecified reasons, believed to be a lack of standalone financial and R&D capabilities. This encompasses more than just designing the aircraft but also the critical components that can be integrated within it, such as the flight control systems and electronics.
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| TAI KAAN Prototype P0 |
Turkey is flight-testing its first-ever stealth fighter: KAAN (earlier known as TF-X). The aircraft is aimed to be inducted into service by 2030. In an interview with Pakistani media in 2022, the CEO of Turkish Aerospace (TUSAŞ), Temel Kotil, personally announced a new designated fighter called "Turkish Pakistani Fighter-X (TPF-X), which was assumed to be a new fifth-generation fighter aircraft to be jointly developed by Pakistan and Turkey, though based on original TF-X. In August 2023 as well, Turkish Deputy Defence Minister Celal Sami Tüfekçi officially stated that Ankara and Islamabad would initiate discussions about Pakistan joining the project as a partner. TFX already has Azerbaijan as its official partner, and it is seeking more partners to support its fifth-generation fighter programme both with fiscal and R&D assistance. One can assume that Pakistan would be able to provide certain know-how on fighter development based on its learning from the JF-17 project with China. The current prototype and the next few prototypes of KAAN will serve as a technology demonstrator. TAI has planned to manufacture 29 prototypes, where each will introduce upgrades to the airframe as per the studies and learnings from preceding prototypes. The current timeline also aims to start the delivery of the aircraft to the Turkish Air Force from 2028.
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| Shenyang FC-31 |
Now speaking of China, the country is looking forward to continue the bilateral cooperation by going ahead with the fifth-generation fighter deal as well. The second fifth-generation fighter aircraft being developed by Beijing, called the FC-31 by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC), is also on radar of the Pakistan Air Force. The aircraft is currently seen to be focused on Chinese carrier-borne operations, as observed by recent test flights of the naval variant known as FC-35. However, the FC-31 since the beginning was designed as a platform also aimed for export, unlike the J-20 which was the first fifth-generation fighter produced by China. In an event held in early January 2024, the Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar made a surprise announcement that talks are ongoing with China to procure the J-31.
“The foundation for acquiring the J-31 stealth fighter aircraft has already been laid which is all set to become part of the PAF’s fleet in the near future,” he stated.
Presently, the FC-31 (J-31 for service standard aircraft) is yet to appear publicly. However, scale models are often showcased by AVIC (state-owned aerospace and defence conglomerate, similar to United Aircraft Corporation of Russia) in major trade shows, pitching it for export. This confirmed that PAF would likely make a move regarding a possible acquisition of the fifth-generation fighter within a year or two.
It is
noteworthy that both KAAN and J-31 are twin-engine fighter aircraft. If
procured, this will give PAF its first-ever experience in acquiring and
maintaining a twin-engine fighter after Shenyang J-6, which was retired in 2002 after more
than 37 years of service. Both aircraft will be integrated with state-of-the-art
weapon armament, radar and avionics suite developed by the host country. The
KAAN will offer Turkish homegrown range of air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground
munitions. Same for J-31 with Chinese air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground
munitions. Pakistan will also carry out integration of its own, like it did
with JF-17. Examples include the integration of REK bombs, which it employed during infamous Operation Swift Retort.
JF-17 Evolution
The JF-17 family of light combat aircraft will go nowhere and continue to serve the needs of the Pakistan Air Force for the coming decades. The latest iteration stands at Block III-spec aircraft which boasts the integration of Chinese KLJ-7A AESA radar, new avionics and EW suite and armament package. In upcoming blocks, presumably Block IV and Block V, newer technologies will be integrated to meet the demands of the future. This includes a VR integrated helmet with Eye-tracking command technology. This concept will be like a "wearable cockpit", that is a helmet powered by AI that can understand commands by eye movements. This will generally reduce the workload of the pilot in intense combat scenarios.
Then is the Manned UnManned-Teaming (MUM-T). It will be similar to the Indian Combat Air Teaming System (CATS), where the objective will be to deploy the platform as a "mothership", controlling a swarm of drones on a recce, intelligence or combat mission.
Then heading to the airframe components, at present composites are involved in constructing some proportion of modern JF-17 airframe, but the next plan is to apply Radar Absorbent Material (RAM) coating to significantly decrease the aircraft's Radar Cross Section (RCS), denying early tracking by hostile air defence systems.
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| JF-17 Block III |
These upgrades, along with more which will be unveiled with time, will continue the development cycle of JF-17 to maintain it as a suitable fighter capable of dealing with changing threat scenarios. From Block I to Block III, Pakistan has gained invaluable experience in manufacturing fighter aircraft on its home soil and it looking to further nurture its production line with future variants as well. The demand for aircraft in the foreign market is also increasing, as observed by recent deals with Myanmar and Nigeria adn interests from more countries in Middle East, Africa and Asian regions. JF-17 will play the same role for Pakistan what F-16 is playing for USA.
F-16
upgrade from Turkey
The F-16 has remained the mainstay of Pakistan Air Force for more than 3 decades now. In 2010, PAF received the advanced F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft. The F-16A/B Block 15 variant which arrived between 1983-1987 saw Mid Life Upgradation (MLU) in 2012 which brought it to AM/BM Block 20 standard with new sub-systems and armament, including Beyond Visual Range (BVR) combat capability. While these airframes will slowly become obsolete, along with the F-16 Air Defence Fighter (ADF) variant it brough second hand from Jordan, there is still significant service life left in Block 52 aircraft, and it will soon need a MLU as well.
The Turkish Air Force also raised the requirement to upgrade its own fleet of more than 200 F-16s. For this, TAI has initiated Project OZGUR. This upgrade includes Turkish own indigenously produced AESA radar (MURAD), mission computer, new air-to-air (which includes Bozdoğan, or Merlin, close-range infrared homing missile and Gökdoğan (Peregrine), beyond-visual-range active radar homing missiles) and air to ground munitions package (including LGK-82 laser guided bomb, TEBER 82 glide bombs, SOM air-launched cruise missile and more), new electro-optical systems (next generation ASELSAN pods), cockpit modernization, and more. The upgrade package, being carried out in phases, will empower the existing Block 30/40/50 aircraft with extended life and enhanced capabilities.
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| TAI upgraded F-16AM Block 20. The airframe (#84-606) is accredited with the claim of shooting down an Indian Air Force Su-30MKI in 2019 | |
TAI was infact involved in the upgradation of the PAF F-16A/B aircraft as well. Pakistan can likely reach out Turkey to integrate the OZGUR upgrade for its F-16 Block 52 aircraft as well which will make sure the aircraft will keep complementing the future fighters of PAF for further more years.
New Attack Helicopters
In June 2018, the United States, under the Trump administration, put a hold on the US$952 million deal which was intended to supply 15 units of state-of-the-art AH-1Z “Viper” to Pakistan. The first batch of the helicopters were already produced and flaunted Pakistan Army markings. However, soon after the announcement regarding the deal being put on hold was made, the helicopters were sent to cold storage in Arizona. Since then, Islamabad has been looking at alternatives from other countries, namely Turkey and China. The TAI T-129 ATAK (a Turkish derivative of Augusta Westland A-129) is the lead contender, for which the negotiations are going on, though with difficulties. Since 2019, US has been objecting the deal by refusing to offer export license for LHTEC T800-4A engines that power the helicopter. Ankara is in constant efforts to persuade US to lift the objection in order to move forward with the US$1.5 billion sale.
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| TAI T-292 ATAK II |
However, it is also developing a next-generation iteration of the T-129 as a standalone program. Known as T-929 ATAK 2, the helicopter will have homegrown systems, which will reduce its dependency on foreign powers and give full control of its utilization and export. The new helicopter will also be in the league of AH-64 “Apache” heavy chopper. It will give more favorable chances for Pakistan to choose it since it will directly compete with India’s AH-64E procurement. However, as the Turkish helicopter is yet to complete all the flight certifications, it will take likely 2-3 more years before it becomes export-ready.
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| Z-10ME |
The Chinese Z-10 is also being reported multiple times as a contender chosen by Pakistan. It is believed that the deal has already been signed and first photos or details can emerge anytime this year. This could be similar to J-10 procurement by PAF. The fighter pilots had already finished their training on the platform before the deal was made public regarding the existence of such fighter aircraft’s deal between Islamabad and Beijing. The helicopter is in service with PLA for more than 10 years now, and went through several upgradations.
While Z-10ME is a light-to-medium weight attack helicopter, China has also started flight testing of a new attack helicopter, called the Z-21, which caters to the heavy-weight class. This helicopter will take further more years for testing and certifications before pitched for export (if there exists any plans).
India
Multi-Role
Combat Aircraft (MRCA) and Multi-Role Carrier Based Fighter (MRCBF)
Among the most controversial subjects since years, the move to purchase new Multi-role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) is still yet to be taken by New Delhi. The aspiration to acquire 114 foreign fighter aircraft to deal with the squadron shortage hasn’t materialized despite the delays with indigenous solutions. The earlier plan to acquire 126 aircraft with Transfer of Technology (ToT) was cancelled and replaced with direct import of 36 units of Dassault Rafale with Indian Specific Enhancements (ISE), which involved integration of Infra-Red Search and Track (IRST), Helmet Mounted Display (Israeli Elbit TARGO II), weapon modifications, and more. However, instead of a follow on order, the Indian government is looking to launch a fresh tender, which will open doors for more OEMs to pitch their products. So far, American F-15, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, SAAB Gripen are looking to pave their way via the new tender, where it will also need to establish a production line in India to fulfill the "Make in India" requirement involving ToT.
Though not officially hinted, it is believed that Rafale will once again grab the new order as it would be beneficial for maintaining logistical chain with single type of aircraft. Inducting a new type of aircraft will bring challenges and additional costs for crew training and logistics acquisition. However, there is still no significant development in the regard of MRCA, and it will take no less than 5 years before coming to the final decision with the chosen aircraft. Indian Air Force has to wait before it will receive new batch of foreign designed fighter platform.
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| Indian Air Force Dassault Rafale(s) |
Speaking of Indian Navy, it has chosen Dassault Rafale M fighter aircraft over the American F/A-18E/F "Super Hornet" Block III fighter after series of evaluations and trials. The aircraft will cover the interim requirement until the indigenous solution as Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) is developed. Earlier, the plan was to procure 57 fighters to arm the two aircraft carriers of the Indian Navy: INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant, and replace the curently serving MiG-29K fighters. However, as TEDBF was envisaged, the plan changed to reduce the number of MRCBF. The government of India has already received the price bids of the aircraft in December 2023 and negotiations are likely to be completed before formal announcement of the contract by the end of 2024 or early 2025.
Indigenous aircraft eco-system
New Delhi is repeatedly making efforts to establish a mature aircraft development and production eco-system. The LCA Tejas was the foundation stone which initiated this aim to build sufficient R&D capabilities in order to churn out state of the art aircraft to fulfill Indian requirements. Presently, there are multiple fighter programmes ongoing, each with dedicated technological leap. Firstly, the Indian Air Force will start inducting the Tejas Mk1A aircraft this year, which made its first flight in March 2024. Mk1A introduces multiple upgrades over Mk1, including AESA radar (ELTA 2052 and indigenous Uttam), better avionics and electronic warfare suite and expanded armament package. In 2021, a contract was signed to supply 73 single seat Mk1A fighters to IAF, while another tender has been launched in April 2024 for acquisition of 97 more units. The total quantity of the jets will soon stand to 180, outnumbering Mirage 2000, MiG-29 and MiG-23 combined, which were acquired in the 80s to counter Pakistan’s F-16 procurement.
While Mk1A sports minor structural variance over Mk1, the next variant called the LCA Mk2 will take the airframe to the next level with larger size and addition of canards. The new aircraft will also integrate more advanced technologies including enhanced indigenous radar, new electronic warfare suite, glass cockpit with wide area display, long range precision strike capability against both aerial and ground targets, etc.. The first prototype of LCA Mk2 is already under construction and likely see roll out and maiden flight between 2026-2029, with inductions tentatively planned from 2031.
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| Render of LCA Mk2 (by Kuntal Biswas) |
Tejas Mk2 will also serve as a stepping stone for Advanced medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the fifth generation fighter programme solely being designed and developed by India. The technologies planned for AMCA will see early incorporation in Tejas Mk2, which will give enough time to trial the systems before integrating them into a more sophisticated aircraft. However, the development cycle needs to be completed within adequate timelines and without major delays. In March 2024, the Indian Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) had approved the design and development of the first prototype. The prototype aircraft and the initial variant (said to be AMCA Mk1A) will be powered by twin American GE F414 engines. However, these could be replaced by turbofan engines from other OEMs which are offering ToT on acceptable terms. The leading contenders are Safran of France and Rolls Royce of UK. However, the initial focus is on the first prototype and its performance, which is expected to be rolled out and take on its maiden flight between 2028-2030.
There is also a plan to fulfill the requirements of the Indian Navy with Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF). The aircraft was introduced in April 2020 as a successor of LCA Navy programme, which has been accepted a technology demonstrator to study carrier borne aircraft development. The TEDBF will be the 4.5 generation platform which will replace the MiG-29K and complement the MRCBF on Indian Navy carrier decks. The Preliminary Design Review of the platform is likely to be completed by the end of 2024. Looking at the current renders and mock-ups displayed officially, the aircraft has resemblance to Tejas Mk2 due to the existence of canards and similar cropped delta wing configuration, but with twin engine configuration, which make it strikingly similar to Rafale. However, the aircraft is being designed indigenously by Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA).
Combined Air Teaming System (CATS)
One of the most sophisticated projects undertaken by India, CATS is a Manned-Unmanned Teaming (M-UMT) concept. It is based on the idea that during an operation, a manned aircraft, called the "mothership" remains within the designated (and safe from hostile/threats) territory while a range of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles take the lead in targeting objects located nearly 700 kilometers away. The largest UCAV, called the "Warrior", will equipped with a suite of missiles tailored for both air and ground assaults. Alfa-S, the smallest, will operate in swarms and conduct kamikaze strikes on the target. Then is the Hunter Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) which will also form a parts in CATS. It will be subsonic and will carry a stealth profile with shape adn terrain hugging capabilities, targeting hostile fortifications within 250 kilometre ranges.
CATS aims to suitably facilitate the fusion of human cognitive abilities, encompassing decision-making and intuition, with the precision and lethal capabilities inherent in machinery. Pilots aboard the manned aircraft gain access to ground visuals relayed by the Warrior, which essentially function as drone, UCAV or a "loyal wingman". It will also guide the swarm drones towards the targets or monitor the activity if the target data is pre-defined. The CATS was unveiled during Aero India 2021, and it is planned to be integrated with indigenous Tejas aircraft as well as Jaguar Deep Penetration Strike Fighter (DPSA).
MUMT technology is already being tested worldwide by major powers. Initiatives in the United States (such as the Collaborative Combat Aircraft or CCA), Australia (the Air Teaming System or ATS), and the United Kingdom (Project Tempest) are advancing in the field of this concept to develop and maximise the synergy between human brain and machine capability (and intelligence).
UCAV fleet expansion
The current Indian Armed Forces inventory of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, in the Medium/High Altitude Long Endurance (MALE/HALE) class is comparatively less than the Pakistan Air Force which maintains a great margin of difference in terms of quantity of unmanned aerial systems. However, though slow, there is an expansion ongoing. Recent inductions include MALE Hermes 900 (known as Dristi 10), produced in house by Adani Defence. Navy is also operating MQ-9B "Sea Guardian" since 2020, and employed it for actual operations. The UAV flies regular sorties close to International Border with Pakistan and China. In March 2024, the UAV also maintained close surveillance during Indian Navy operation which rescued the MV Ruen vessel in the Gulf of Aden, 2600 km off the Indian Coast. The Indian Air Force also inducted Heron Mk2 drones in August 2023. However, the UAVs mentioned are primarily for reconnaissance and surveillance purposes and not combat. The first dedicated combat drones, or UCAVs are likely to be introduced with MQ-9B (SeaGuardian/SkyGuardian) “Predators”, which will be distributed among the three wings (15 for Navy, 8 for Army and 8 for Air Force).
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| SWiFT UCAV |
Furthermore,
indigenous drone programmes, most notable of which is the Ghatak UCAV, is in
development with great progress going on. The downscaled technology
demonstrator of the platform, Stealth Wing Flying Testbed (SWiFT) has already
completed multiple fight trials. The SWIFT development will help in studying
the factors involved in the production of a UCAV in Flying Wing configurattion.
These will be executed in the development of the actual-sized Ghatak aircraft,
implementing all the technologies and produce a formidable UCAV by 2025. Another indigenous UCAV, Archer, for short
range air to ground and surveillance missions, is under development. It has went through some terminology and design changes since it was originally introduced. However, there was no deviation from the actual role and capabilities planned with this platform.
If compared with Pakistan, it already boasts multiple types of UCAV in service, which are imported as well as developed locally. The former includes recently inducted Turkish MALE Bayraktar TB-2, HALE Akıncı, Chinese MALE CH-4. The indigenously produced drones which are already inducted are NESCOM Burraq and GIDS Shahpar. As one can see, India lags behind Pakistan when it comes to flaunting a sufficient size of UCAV fleet.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the air power roadmaps of India and Pakistan for the future demonstrate their commitment to countering each other while maintaining deterrence. Both nations are steadily progressing by absorbing the latest technologies and capabilities. Pakistan's strategic collaborations with Turkey and China showcase its efforts towards acquiring fifth-generation fighters and upgrading its existing fleet. Meanwhile, India's emphasis on indigenous aircraft development reflects its pursuit of self-reliance and technological advancement.
Footnotes
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSjHVpHf9x0
5. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305570.shtml
6. https://twitter.com/_devildog_rv_/status/1485594955498541060
7. https://thepakmilitarymonitor.com/chinese-z-10me-for-pakistan/
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